Richmond, VA - In two separate analyses today of the U.S. Senate race in Virginia, POLITICO and National Journal’s Hotline concluded that over the last month, the Kaine for Virginia campaign has demonstrated significant advantages in fundraising, economic message, and grassroots support.
The articles note:
- The significant fundraising advantage the Kaine for Virginia campaign has earned overall, and especially in donations from Virginia.
- The two-week economic tour Kaine completed that made stops in nearly every region in Virginia to share Kaine’s economic agenda. As POLITICO writes, "Democrat Tim Kaine managed to dominate the commonwealth’s narrative with a two-week economic tour that earned him dozens of positive local press clips."
- The grassroots enthusiasm that greeted Kaine in Charlottesville and Richmond with rallies of more than 400.
- A forward-focused, Virginia-based campaign message that's appealing to voters of all affiliations. Hotline notes, "Kaine is likely to benefit from a few points of crossover voting..."
- The head start Democrats have garnered by building early infrastructure to put them in a strong position for November.
Beyond outraising George Allen for the fourth consecutive quarter and doubling his number of Virginia donors, Democrat Tim Kaine managed to dominate the commonwealth’s narrative with a two-week economic tour that earned him dozens of positive local press clips.
At stops in Charlottesville and Richmond, Kaine drew crowds of 400 and — as The New York Times noted – glowed in the “almost nonpartisan” reflection of Sen. Mark Warner, who tapped Kaine as his gubernatorial running mate more than a decade ago.
Crossroads GPS dropped in again to link Kaine to President Barack Obama. But with polling still showing a dead heat, it’s an open question whether that line of attack is moving the needle.
Who won April: Kaine
Latest poll: Allen 46%, Kaine 45% (Rasmussen Reports, 500 likely voters, April 23)
10. VIRGINIA (Open D, Sen. Jim Webb retiring) (Last month: 9)
When was the last time George Allen had a really good day? It's been a while—fundraising numbers are going Tim Kaine's way, polling shows the race basically even, and Republicans are only now investing in the infrastructure Democrats have been building for months. The race is close to a toss-up, but it's the most competitive race least likely to change party hands. Kaine is likely to benefit from a few points of crossover voting, and the fact that Obama is so heavily targeting the state only augments Kaine's own standing. (Check out our baseline analysis of the race here)